Group T Final Standings Projection

MNP Season 23 • 10,000 Monte Carlo iterations • Standings through week 9 • Generated April 7, 2026

Projected Final Standings

POPS tiebreaker is simulated: each Monte Carlo iteration samples a game-point fraction from historical win/loss/tie distributions and projects each team’s final POPS.

Team	Current	POPS now	Exp POPS	Avg HC	Exp Final	E[Pos]	#1	#2	#3	#4	#5	#6	#7	#8	#9
The Power	7-2-0	0.530	0.534	5.6	7.8-2.2-0.0	1.17	85.4%	12.0%	2.6%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Pants Optional	7-2-0	0.521	0.513	8.8	7.2-2.8-0.0	2.16	10.3%	63.0%	26.7%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Specials When Lit	6-3-0	0.525	0.520	4.4	6.4-3.6-0.0	3.31	4.3%	25.0%	20.9%	36.3%	13.1%	0.5%	—	—	—
Trolls!	5-3-1	0.512	0.515	12.8	5.7-3.3-1.0	4.07	—	—	34.3%	31.4%	27.5%	6.8%	—	—	—
Point Breakers	5-3-1	0.538	0.529	7.6	5.2-3.8-1.0	4.57	—	—	14.8%	25.7%	47.6%	11.9%	—	—	—
Surf Champs	5-4-0	0.492	0.487	15.0	5.2-4.7-0.0	5.83	—	—	0.8%	6.6%	11.8%	69.8%	11.0%	—	—
Magic Saves	4-5-0	0.519	0.510	13.8	4.1-5.8-0.0	6.98	—	—	—	—	—	11.0%	79.7%	9.3%	—
Salty Sea Dogs	3-5-1	0.464	0.460	14.9	3.1-5.9-1.0	8.01	—	—	—	—	—	—	9.3%	80.3%	10.4%
Neuromancers	3-6-0	0.450	0.447	14.0	3.1-6.9-0.0	8.90	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	10.4%	89.6%

Playoff Contention (Top 4 Probability)

The Power

100.0% 1st:85% LOCKED

Pants Optional

100.0% 1st:10% LOCKED

Specials When Lit

86.4% 1st:4% CONTENDING

Trolls!

65.7% 1st:0% CONTENDING

Point Breakers

40.5% 1st:0% CONTENDING

Surf Champs

7.4% 1st:0% LONG SHOT

Salty Sea Dogs

0.0% 1st:0% OUT

Neuromancers

0.0% 1st:0% OUT

Magic Saves

0.0% 1st:0% OUT

Remaining Schedule

Away win Tie Home win • HC = avg handicap from S23 lineups • Group T in white

Week 10 (GT Away)

14% Magic Saves

Knight Riders 84%

tie 2%

Away HC: 14 Home HC: 11 HC +3 away Venue +9pp

22% Point Breakers

Silverball Slayers 76%

tie 2%

Away HC: 8 Home HC: 6 HC +1 away

11% Salty Sea Dogs

Eighteen Ball Deluxe 87%

tie 2%

Away HC: 15 Home HC: 12 HC +3 away Venue +9pp

23% Surf Champs

Ramp Tramps 75%

tie 3%

Away HC: 15 Home HC: 14 HC +1 away Venue +8ppAway +3pp

12% Neuromancers

Little League All Stars 87%

tie 2%

Away HC: 14 Home HC: 10 HC +4 away Away -4pp

21% Pants Optional

DTP 77%

tie 2%

Away HC: 9 Home HC: 8 HC +1 away Venue -5ppAway -11pp

37% Specials When Lit

Death Savers 61%

tie 2%

Away HC: 4 Home HC: 7 HC +3 home Away -6pp

69% Trolls!

Incrediballs 29%

tie 1%

Away HC: 13 Home HC: 15 HC +2 home Venue -13ppAway +6pp

81% The Power

Hellhounds 18%

tie 0%

Away HC: 6 Home HC: 14 HC +9 home Venue -6ppAway +7pp

Key Insights

Virtually locked into the top 4: The Power, Pants Optional.

The playoff race: Specials When Lit (86%), Trolls! (66%), Point Breakers (40%), Surf Champs (7%).

Effectively eliminated from top 4: Salty Sea Dogs, Neuromancers, Magic Saves.

Easiest remaining schedule: The Power (avg win prob 81%). Hardest: Salty Sea Dogs (11%).

POPS tiebreaker (7-2-0): The Power (0.534), Pants Optional (0.513)

POPS tiebreaker (5-3-1): Point Breakers (0.529), Trolls! (0.515)

Group P Final Standings Projection

MNP Season 23 • 10,000 Monte Carlo iterations • Standings through week 9 • Generated April 7, 2026

Projected Final Standings

POPS tiebreaker is simulated: each Monte Carlo iteration samples a game-point fraction from historical win/loss/tie distributions and projects each team’s final POPS.

Team	Current	POPS now	Exp POPS	Avg HC	Exp Final	E[Pos]	#1	#2	#3	#4	#5	#6	#7	#8	#9
DTP	8-1-0	0.559	0.559	7.9	8.8-1.2-0.0	1.00	100.0%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Knight Riders	5-3-1	0.528	0.533	11.0	5.8-3.1-1.0	2.55	—	65.9%	20.0%	7.0%	7.1%	—	—	—	—
Silverball Slayers	5-3-1	0.520	0.524	6.1	5.8-3.2-1.0	3.06	—	30.6%	46.3%	9.9%	13.2%	—	—	—	—
Little League All Stars	5-4-0	0.516	0.523	10.0	5.9-4.1-0.0	4.18	—	1.9%	18.8%	45.9%	26.1%	7.4%	—	—	—
Death Savers	5-4-0	0.521	0.522	7.1	5.6-4.4-0.0	4.52	—	1.6%	14.9%	35.0%	26.7%	21.8%	—	—	—
Eighteen Ball Deluxe	4-5-0	0.507	0.515	12.1	4.9-5.1-0.0	5.71	—	—	—	2.2%	27.0%	68.2%	2.7%	—	—
Ramp Tramps	3-6-0	0.478	0.486	14.3	3.7-6.2-0.0	6.99	—	—	—	—	—	2.7%	95.5%	1.8%	—
Hellhounds	2-7-0	0.454	0.452	14.4	2.2-7.8-0.0	7.98	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.8%	98.2%	—
Incrediballs	0-8-1	0.422	0.425	15.0	0.3-8.7-1.0	9.00	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	100.0%

Playoff Contention (Top 4 Probability)

DTP

100.0% 1st:100% LOCKED

Knight Riders

92.9% 1st:0% CONTENDING

Silverball Slayers

86.8% 1st:0% CONTENDING

Little League All Stars

66.5% 1st:0% CONTENDING

Death Savers

51.5% 1st:0% CONTENDING

Eighteen Ball Deluxe

2.2% 1st:0% LONG SHOT

Ramp Tramps

0.0% 1st:0% OUT

Incrediballs

0.0% 1st:0% OUT

Hellhounds

0.0% 1st:0% OUT

Remaining Schedule

Away win Tie Home win • HC = avg handicap from S23 lineups • Group P in white

Week 10 (GP Home)

14% Magic Saves

Knight Riders 84% HOME VENUE

tie 2%

Away HC: 14 Home HC: 11 HC +3 away Venue +9pp

22% Point Breakers

Silverball Slayers 76% HOME VENUE

tie 2%

Away HC: 8 Home HC: 6 HC +1 away

11% Salty Sea Dogs

Eighteen Ball Deluxe 87% HOME VENUE

tie 2%

Away HC: 15 Home HC: 12 HC +3 away Venue +9pp

23% Surf Champs

Ramp Tramps 75% HOME VENUE

tie 3%

Away HC: 15 Home HC: 14 HC +1 away Venue +8ppAway +3pp

12% Neuromancers

Little League All Stars 87% HOME VENUE

tie 2%

Away HC: 14 Home HC: 10 HC +4 away Away -4pp

21% Pants Optional

DTP 77% HOME VENUE

tie 2%

Away HC: 9 Home HC: 8 HC +1 away Venue -5ppAway -11pp

37% Specials When Lit

Death Savers 61% HOME VENUE

tie 2%

Away HC: 4 Home HC: 7 HC +3 home Away -6pp

69% Trolls!

Incrediballs 29% HOME VENUE

tie 1%

Away HC: 13 Home HC: 15 HC +2 home Venue -13ppAway +6pp

81% The Power

Hellhounds 18% HOME VENUE

tie 0%

Away HC: 6 Home HC: 14 HC +9 home Venue -6ppAway +7pp

Key Insights

Virtually locked into the top 4: DTP.

The playoff race: Knight Riders (93%), Silverball Slayers (87%), Little League All Stars (67%), Death Savers (52%), Eighteen Ball Deluxe (2%).

Effectively eliminated from top 4: Ramp Tramps, Incrediballs, Hellhounds.

Easiest remaining schedule: Eighteen Ball Deluxe (avg win prob 87%). Hardest: Hellhounds (18%).

POPS tiebreaker (5-3-1): Knight Riders (0.533), Silverball Slayers (0.524)

POPS tiebreaker (5-4-0): Little League All Stars (0.523), Death Savers (0.522)

Group R Final Standings Projection

MNP Season 23 • 10,000 Monte Carlo iterations • Standings through week 9 • Generated April 7, 2026

Projected Final Standings

POPS tiebreaker is simulated: each Monte Carlo iteration samples a game-point fraction from historical win/loss/tie distributions and projects each team’s final POPS.

Team	Current	POPS now	Exp POPS	Avg HC	Exp Final	E[Pos]	#1	#2	#3	#4	#5	#6	#7	#8	#9
Northern Lights	6-3-0	0.543	0.541	3.9	6.6-3.4-0.0	1.00	100.0%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Seacorns	4-5-0	0.495	0.498	11.1	4.6-5.4-0.0	2.52	—	68.0%	18.8%	8.4%	3.2%	1.4%	—	—	—
Flippin Big Points	4-5-0	0.487	0.479	12.6	4.1-5.9-0.0	3.98	—	7.3%	30.5%	32.8%	18.1%	8.9%	2.4%	—	—
Bad Cats	4-5-0	0.479	0.475	11.6	4.2-5.8-0.0	4.25	—	11.4%	22.2%	23.4%	21.8%	15.9%	5.3%	—	—
Admiraballs	4-5-0	0.468	0.466	7.7	4.3-5.7-0.0	4.96	—	9.4%	15.6%	9.3%	16.7%	33.6%	15.5%	—	—
Pinballycule	4-5-0	0.476	0.469	10.9	4.1-5.9-0.0	4.99	—	3.3%	9.6%	19.3%	30.0%	28.6%	9.3%	—	—
Slap Kraken Pop	3-6-0	0.455	0.458	11.0	3.4-6.6-0.0	6.31	—	0.6%	3.4%	6.9%	10.1%	11.7%	67.3%	—	—
Drain in Hell	1-8-0	0.429	0.427	14.3	1.1-8.9-0.0	8.15	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	85.2%	14.8%
Sharks	1-8-0	0.405	0.406	15.0	1.1-8.9-0.0	8.85	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	14.8%	85.2%

Playoff Contention (Top 4 Probability)

Northern Lights

100.0% 1st:100% LOCKED

Seacorns

95.2% 1st:0% LOCKED

Flippin Big Points

70.6% 1st:0% CONTENDING

Bad Cats

57.0% 1st:0% CONTENDING

Admiraballs

34.2% 1st:0% CONTENDING

Pinballycule

32.2% 1st:0% CONTENDING

Slap Kraken Pop

10.9% 1st:0% LONG SHOT

Sharks

0.0% 1st:0% OUT

Drain in Hell

0.0% 1st:0% OUT

Remaining Schedule

Away win Tie Home win • HC = avg handicap from S23 lineups • Group R in white

Week 10 (GR Away)

58% Seacorns

Middle Flippers 39%

tie 2%

Away HC: 11 Home HC: 15 HC +3 home Venue -5ppAway +11pp

7% Drain in Hell

Pocketeers 91%

tie 1%

Away HC: 14 Home HC: 7 HC +7 away Venue -9ppAway -3pp

62% Northern Lights

Ballard Locks 36%

tie 2%

Away HC: 4 Home HC: 8 HC +4 home Venue -12ppAway +7pp

10% Sharks

The Trailer Trashers 88%

tie 2%

Away HC: 15 Home HC: 14 HC +1 away Venue +7ppAway -4pp

8% Pinballycule

The Wrecking Crew 91%

tie 1%

Away HC: 11 Home HC: 5 HC +6 away Venue +9ppAway -1pp

5% Flippin Big Points

Castle Crashers 94%

tie 1%

Away HC: 13 Home HC: 6 HC +7 away Venue +2ppAway -11pp

22% Bad Cats

Pinguins 76%

tie 2%

Away HC: 12 Home HC: 12 HC even Venue -2ppAway -13pp

27% Admiraballs

The B Team 72%

tie 1%

Away HC: 8 Home HC: 11 HC +3 home Venue +8ppAway -20pp

41% Slap Kraken Pop

The Stray Dogs 56%

tie 2%

Away HC: 11 Home HC: 13 HC +2 home Venue -2ppAway +1pp

Key Insights

Virtually locked into the top 4: Northern Lights, Seacorns.

The playoff race: Flippin Big Points (71%), Bad Cats (57%), Admiraballs (34%), Pinballycule (32%), Slap Kraken Pop (11%).

Effectively eliminated from top 4: Sharks, Drain in Hell.

Easiest remaining schedule: Northern Lights (avg win prob 62%). Hardest: Flippin Big Points (5%).

POPS tiebreaker (4-5-0): Seacorns (0.498), Flippin Big Points (0.479), Bad Cats (0.475), Pinballycule (0.469), Admiraballs (0.466)

POPS tiebreaker (1-8-0): Drain in Hell (0.427), Sharks (0.406)

Group S Final Standings Projection

MNP Season 23 • 10,000 Monte Carlo iterations • Standings through week 9 • Generated April 7, 2026

Projected Final Standings

POPS tiebreaker is simulated: each Monte Carlo iteration samples a game-point fraction from historical win/loss/tie distributions and projects each team’s final POPS.

Team	Current	POPS now	Exp POPS	Avg HC	Exp Final	E[Pos]	#1	#2	#3	#4	#5	#6	#7	#8	#9
Castle Crashers	7-2-0	0.601	0.601	5.7	7.9-2.1-0.0	1.17	87.1%	8.8%	4.1%	—	—	—	—	—	—
The Wrecking Crew	7-2-0	0.582	0.583	5.2	7.9-2.1-0.0	1.94	12.5%	81.4%	5.5%	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
The B Team	7-2-0	0.526	0.528	10.6	7.7-2.3-0.0	3.25	—	9.6%	64.0%	17.0%	9.0%	—	—	—	—
Pocketeers	6-3-0	0.540	0.545	7.3	6.9-3.1-0.0	3.85	—	—	24.5%	66.9%	7.2%	1.1%	—	—	—
Ballard Locks	6-3-0	0.525	0.520	8.0	6.4-3.6-0.0	5.18	—	—	1.9%	14.2%	47.8%	36.1%	—	—	—
Pinguins	5-4-0	0.512	0.517	11.9	5.8-4.2-0.0	5.68	—	—	—	1.3%	36.0%	56.6%	6.1%	—	—
The Stray Dogs	4-5-0	0.490	0.493	13.3	4.6-5.4-0.0	7.30	—	—	—	—	—	6.1%	57.9%	35.9%	—
The Trailer Trashers	3-6-0	0.504	0.512	14.2	3.9-6.1-0.0	7.64	—	—	—	—	—	—	35.9%	64.0%	—
Middle Flippers	1-8-0	0.455	0.457	14.6	1.4-8.6-0.0	9.00	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	100.0%

Playoff Contention (Top 4 Probability)

The Wrecking Crew

100.0% 1st:13% LOCKED

Castle Crashers

100.0% 1st:87% LOCKED

Pocketeers

91.6% 1st:0% CONTENDING

The B Team

91.0% 1st:0% CONTENDING

Ballard Locks

16.1% 1st:0% CONTENDING

Pinguins

1.3% 1st:0% OUT

The Trailer Trashers

0.0% 1st:0% OUT

The Stray Dogs

0.0% 1st:0% OUT

Middle Flippers

0.0% 1st:0% OUT

Remaining Schedule

Away win Tie Home win • HC = avg handicap from S23 lineups • Group S in white

Week 10 (GS Home)

58% Seacorns

Middle Flippers 39% HOME VENUE

tie 2%

Away HC: 11 Home HC: 15 HC +3 home Venue -5ppAway +11pp

7% Drain in Hell

Pocketeers 91% HOME VENUE

tie 1%

Away HC: 14 Home HC: 7 HC +7 away Venue -9ppAway -3pp

62% Northern Lights

Ballard Locks 36% HOME VENUE

tie 2%

Away HC: 4 Home HC: 8 HC +4 home Venue -12ppAway +7pp

10% Sharks

The Trailer Trashers 88% HOME VENUE

tie 2%

Away HC: 15 Home HC: 14 HC +1 away Venue +7ppAway -4pp

8% Pinballycule

The Wrecking Crew 91% HOME VENUE

tie 1%

Away HC: 11 Home HC: 5 HC +6 away Venue +9ppAway -1pp

5% Flippin Big Points

Castle Crashers 94% HOME VENUE

tie 1%

Away HC: 13 Home HC: 6 HC +7 away Venue +2ppAway -11pp

22% Bad Cats

Pinguins 76% HOME VENUE

tie 2%

Away HC: 12 Home HC: 12 HC even Venue -2ppAway -13pp

27% Admiraballs

The B Team 72% HOME VENUE

tie 1%

Away HC: 8 Home HC: 11 HC +3 home Venue +8ppAway -20pp

41% Slap Kraken Pop

The Stray Dogs 56% HOME VENUE

tie 2%

Away HC: 11 Home HC: 13 HC +2 home Venue -2ppAway +1pp

Key Insights

Virtually locked into the top 4: The Wrecking Crew, Castle Crashers.

The playoff race: Pocketeers (92%), The B Team (91%), Ballard Locks (16%).

Effectively eliminated from top 4: Pinguins, The Trailer Trashers, The Stray Dogs, Middle Flippers.

Easiest remaining schedule: Castle Crashers (avg win prob 94%). Hardest: Ballard Locks (36%).

POPS tiebreaker (7-2-0): Castle Crashers (0.601), The Wrecking Crew (0.583), The B Team (0.528)

POPS tiebreaker (6-3-0): Pocketeers (0.545), Ballard Locks (0.520)

Methodology & Model Details

Training data: 351 matches from MNP Seasons 22–23 (handicap era)
Outcome variable: Game points + handicap (not raw game points). HC = round(25 − team_IPR_sum/2)
Model: Two logistic regressions (P(home win) and P(home doesn’t lose)) with four features: IPR sum difference, true home venue, per-venue home advantage residual, and per-team away performance residual
Per-venue effects: Residual home win rate after controlling for IPR, shrunk toward 0 for small samples (half-weight at 10 matches)
Per-team away effects: Residual away win rate after controlling for IPR, shrunk toward 0 (half-weight at 8 matches)
Handicap: Uses each team’s average handicap from their actual S23 match lineups (accounts for sub fluctuations)
Simulation: 10,000 Monte Carlo iterations per group, sampling three-outcome probabilities for remaining matches (week 10)
POPS tiebreaker: Each simulation samples a game-point fraction from empirical win/loss/tie distributions (S22–23) and projects each team’s final POPS.
Rankings: Points (2×W + T) with projected final POPS as tiebreaker
Baseline: Standings through week 9
Same model for all groups: The model is trained on all league data (not group-specific), so the same coefficients and distributions apply to every group.

Model Coefficients

Feature	Win Model	Not-Lose Model
ipr_sum_diff	0.1090	0.1149
true_home	0.7045	0.7553
venue_resid	2.0997	2.1500
away_team_resid	-3.1403	-2.9503
intercept	0.1062	0.1775

351

Training matches (S22-23)

0.152

Brier score (enhanced)

12%

Brier improvement

65%

Home win rate (HC)

1.7%

Tie rate (HC)

Generated April 7, 2026 • MNP Season 23 All Groups Analysis v4 • Data: mnp-data-archive S22–S23